王郁琦登陆反映北京自信

在诸多关于中国崛起的讨论当中,没有比观察北京怎么处理两岸关系,更能准确反映这个地缘政治现实。台湾陆委会主委王郁琦以官方正式身份登陆,首站选在中华民国故都南京,中共对他在中山陵拜祭时公开说出“孙中山创立中华民国已经103年”,没有予以反驳,在上海汪辜会谈旧址的和平饭店举行第二轮茶叙会晤时,初步探讨“习马会”的可能性,无不显示出大陆高度的政治自信。
这种自信来自大陆对本身综合实力的判断,正因为具有充足实力,才能对台湾采取更灵活包容的态度。只要从反面看北京如何在军事与科技上不断展现“肌肉”(航母巡航、派舰队到南中国海九段线最南端誓师、续程到印度尼西亚及澳大利亚海域演习、“玉兔”登月、“蛟龙”潜海、极地科研),在国际舆论上全面挞伐日本,在外交上就东海空识区寸步不让等一系列作为,就更清楚其对待台湾的身段是如何的柔软了。
因此,外界原本不看好的“习马会”,或许也会出现让人意外的发展。本来按照常理,习近平刚掌权不久,马英九则已经无法连任,对于大陆而言,就算要安排两岸领导人会面,这个历史性机会也应该留给马英九的继任者,才符合政治交易的成本计算。但是,从北京近期的表现来看,不能完全排除大陆会从更高的格局考量,提早打出这张好牌。台北在两岸博弈中已经逐渐流失主动权,如何避免陷入完全的战略被动,是台湾朝野两党必须正视的挑战。

原载2014年2月17日早报网“华人视界”

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About yapphenghui 叶鹏飞

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1 则回应给 王郁琦登陆反映北京自信

  1. Carol Soon说道:

    Dear Blogger of Study Room 書齋,

    You are invited to participate in a research study. The Institute of Policy Studies is conducting a baseline analysis of the Chinese blogosphere.

    While much has been discussed about English blogs, very little attention has been given to non-English blogs. As part of our study, we are conducting a survey to find out more about Chinese bloggers’ blogging practices, topics of interest and motivations for blogging.

    If you are interested to find out more about the survey, please contact my colleague Mr Sim Jui Liang at sim.juiliang@nus.edu.sg and he will send you a link to the study.

    The survey will last 15-20 minutes. Your participation will be an invaluable contribution to the first study on the Chinese blogosphere.

    We look forward to hearing from you soon.

    Thank you.

    Dr Carol Soon
    Research Fellow
    Institute of Policy Studies
    National University of Singapore

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